TARIFF SHAKE-UPS
SOME COUNTRIES GET A BETTER DEAL UNDER NEW TRUMP IMPORT TAXES
Trump
Greer
A container vessel is loaded and moored March 22, 2023, in the port of Cape town, South Africa. the country's tariff rate is expected to drop from 30% to 12.5%.
Singapore's Jurong Industrial estate is seen in 2024. The country is likely to see a higher tariff rate this year.
SPOTLIGHT| TRADE
President Donald Trump is rolling out new tools with the same protectionist goals after the Supreme Court ruled his sweeping global tariffs to be illegal.
His administration wants the rebuilt import taxes to mirror those he put on every major trading partner at the beginning of his second term.
However, not all is as it was on April 2, 2025. To make tariffs more legally sound, many countries are subject to investigations under accusations of trade unfairness — with the most prominent two focused on forced-labor rules and excess industrial capacity.
The actions were brought under a legal authority known as Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Not all countries are targets of the probes, and when Trump's temporary 10% across-the-board tariffs expire at the end of July, some stand to gain a competitive edge with a lower rate than they had before. Others could end up worse off.
The administration used tariff exemptions for imports it doesn't want to make more costly to buy from abroad, such as artificial intelligence equipment, farm tractors or Brazilian coffee. However, inclusions can add items and broaden the scope of tariff targets.
Another unresolved issue is what happens with economies — such as India, the European Union, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom — that signed trade agreements capping their tariff rates at lower negotiated levels, especially on automobiles. U.S. officials sought to reassure them that those agreements remain intact.
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer's recent trip to India may provide a preview of what countries with deals should expect. Piyush Goyal, the nation's commerce and industry minister, said at a news briefing that "the issue currently pending is that our duties need to be lower compared to those of competing nations," according to news agency ANI.
With those caveats, here's a breakdown of prospective winners and losers for the next phase of Trump's tariff barriers.
Winners
The Philippines: The Southeast Asia country previously was subject to a 19% rate; now, it will be subject to a 12.5% tariff if the forced-labor penalties are imposed as proposed. It isn't subject to the excess capacity probe, so there isn't an expected increase in duties. That raises the potential for an almost seven percentage-point drop in its tariff rate compared with April 2025. U.S. goods imports from Philippines totaled $7.7 billion in the first fourth months of this year, a 51% increase from the January-April period in 2025.
South Africa: In April 2025, South Africa was slapped with a 30% tariff rate as Trump alleged the government discriminated against white Afrikaners. That duty rate is now expected to settle at 12.5% after the forced-labor investigation concludes. South African goods shipments into the U.S. through April totaled $3.5 billion, down 56% from a year earlier.
Smaller economies: Several countries that engage in less than $10 billion of U.S. trade are set to benefit from the new tariff wall, with some bouncing from exorbitant tariff rates back down to the most favored nation duties. This potentially opens up a new frontier for multinationals to shift their supply chains in attempts to avoid higher duties. Pakistan's tariffs will drop 19 percentage points to 10% from 29%. Myanmar was hit with a 44% duty in April 2025; now, it could drop down to a rate of between zero and 2% on most goods, and Laos and Lesotho are in similar positions.
Loser
Singapore: The small but important U.S. trading partner almost certainly will be left in a worse position under the new tariff regime. It did not get a country-specific emergency tariff in April 2025, but the city-state was hit with the 10% duty applied this year to all the others. Now, the Southeast Asian economy faces a 12.5% tariff on forced labor and an expected additional tariff from the excess capacity probe. Making matters tougher for American importers that pay tariffs and handle compliance paperwork, Singapore is one of the world's busiest transshipment hubs — meaning lots of raw materials enter its ports and industrial zones and then are exported as finished products.
Too Soon to Tell
Canada: At first glance, the country appears better positioned, with tariffs on imports lower than the April 2025 levies. There are key exemptions for qualified goods under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement. Still, industry-specific tariffs on metals strained Canadian industry. Trump threatens to withdraw from the North American trade agreement he helped broker during his first term, and made it clear he has grievances with Canadians for retaliatory actions. Even if the threats are a negotiating chip, it means Canada can't rest easy heading into USMCA renegotiations this year.
Mexico: The country is pushing for relief on sector-specific auto tariff rates, arguing their rate exceeds those of some vehicles imported from South Korea or Japan. As part of the ongoing USMCA talks, Washington is pushing Mexico to implement a rule for cars in the North American trade zone to be composed of at least 50% American-sourced goods. The talks will continue through at least July, making tariffs' effects on Mexico's trade unclear in the near term.
European Union: The EU is under pressure from the U.S. to codify its trade agreement. The European Parliament and EU countries still need to vote to ratify the finished text before a July 4 deadline Trump imposed. The U.S. president said if the deal isn't in place by then, he will raise tariffs on European automobiles to 25% from 15%, though Greer sought to assure Brussels that "a deal's a deal." The parliament recently voted to approve the pact. EU countries are expected to soon give their final nod, the last step in a yearlong ratification process. However, in recent days Trump launched a 301 investigation against Germany, citing "persistent underpayment for innovative pharmaceutical products." In response, Chancellor Friedrich Merz said he expects the U.S. to stand by its trade commitments with Europe, adding that decisions on pharmaceutical payments are a domestic matter.
China: The country is in a vastly better position than it was at the start of Trump's second term in January 2025. During his presidential campaign in 2024, he vowed to implement a 60% tariff on China. The effective rate now sits at about 21%, according to analysis by Bloomberg Economics. The U.S. and China are set to revisit their tariff truce this fall. While much could happen between now and then, Chinese leader Xi Jinping demonstrated the country's leverage over the U.S. economy by blockading its rare earths exports last year.
