Foxx's reelection fate may come down to nearly 3,000 provisional ballots
U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx smiles while speaking during a rally in September at the Koury Convention Center. Foxx trails her opponent by 99 votes in the race for the 5th District seat.
U.S. Rep. Virginia Foxx's chances of rallying from behind to secure a 12th term in the 5th District depend largely on the outcome of nearly 3,000 provisional ballots.
Chuck Hubbard
With complete but unofficial results, Foxx trails Democrat Chuck Hubbard by 99 votes, or by 0.04%, out of 285,498 ballots cast, according to the state Board of Elections.
Contrast that with Foxx defeating Hubbard in 2024 by a 59.4% to 40.5% margin.
Foxx would need at least a net gain of 100 votes to secure her reelection.
Foxx currently is in the powerful role of House Rules committee chairwoman, which gives her the authority to determine which bills are heard on the House floor.
The 5th District is the closest of the 14 U.S. House races.
If Hubbard's lead holds up, Democrats will have completed turning the state's congressional district from 10-4 Republican to 10-4 Democrat.
Provisional ballots typically are those cast by a voter whose name does not appear on the voter registration rolls at their assigned location, there are eligibility questions that can't be readily resolved, or if they are unable to show an acceptable form of photo identification when voting.
The 5th District stretches from Greensboro and Guilford County west to the Tennessee border.
There are 1,606 provisional ballots in Guilford.
However, because the 6th and 9th districts also include sections of Guilford, it is not clear how many provisional ballots to consider for the Fifth District.
The Fifth District was redrawn in 2023 by the Republican-controlled legislature to make it less Democratic-leaning by removing Forsyth County, and including Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Caldwell, Rockingham, Stokes, Surry, Watauga and Wilkes counties.
Those nine counties combine for 1,398 provisional ballots with the next largest totals 334 in Watauga and 340 in Rockingham.
Hubbard currently leads in Guilford and Watauga, while Foxx leads in the other counties.
After Election Day, every county board of elections meets to decide whether to approve, partially approve or disapprove provisional ballots. If the board determines that the voter is eligible, the provisional ballot is counted.
These ballots will be added to the results during the 10-day canvass period following Election Day, or through Nov. 13. The state canvas is set for 11 a.m. Nov. 24.
“To be clear, the counting process has not ended under state law," Foxx wrote.
"There were more than 1,000 provisional ballots cast in this contest two years ago, and Republicans netted a total that would eclipse the current margin."
Foxx hopes to gain votes from military and provisional ballots that state Republican legislators have attempted to restrict as part of legislation they claim as voter-integrity bills.
All remaining absentee-by-mail ballots that have a curable deficiency will be counted Nov. 10 as long as the voter’s cure document is received by noon on that day.
Curable deficiencies can include when a voter did not sign their ballot application or signed it in the wrong place, or there is an issue with the photo ID documentation included with their ballot application.
Ballots cast by military and overseas citizen voters that are mailed by Election Day and arrive at county board of elections offices by 5 p.m. Nov. 12 will be counted by the county canvass on Nov. 13.
Typically, a machine-run recount is done first. A hand recount can also be requested, initially of a sample of ballots, and then a full ballot recount if deemed necessary by the State Board of Elections.
The State Board of Elections is under the oversight of Republican state Auditor Dave Boliek. Boliek is the only state auditor in the nation to hold that authority.
Hubbard noted in his statement that "last night’s results came out extremely close, which means we will have to fight for this seat.
"While I know this is an eager time. I trust the Board of Elections to complete their work correctly and fairly."
Hubbard added that "I look forward to getting to work on fighting corruption, bringing Helene recovery back to the district, and delivering on lowering costs for working people."
