THE PRICE OF DISLOYALTY
Trump backs primary challengers against his perceived foes in GOP
Ed Gallrein speaks March 11 alongside President Donald Trump during a visit to Verst Logistics in Hebron, Ky. Trump backs Gallrein in a challenge to rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., in the November midterm election.
ELECTION 2026
President Donald Trump knocked off at least five Republican state senators in Indiana he considered disloyal. Now, the question is whether he will command such outsized influence in GOP primaries for Congress and governor.
Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger earned Trump's ire in different ways. Now, Trump wants to replace them with Republicans he considers more reliable.
John Pitney Jr., a professor of politics at Claremont McKenna College in California, said the Indiana results confirmed Trump's grip on his party.
"Sometimes, Republican politicians can cross him and survive, but usually they don't," Pitney said. "If you're a Republican with doubts about Trump, you have a strong incentive to keep those doubts in a lockbox."
Karen Hult, a political science professor at Virginia Tech, said to the extent the races are viewed as "one-shot 'retribution' or 'payback races' in safe Republican districts," the campaigns likely convey little about the cost of gas, food and healthcare.
"Certainly, in the short run, President Trump and his Republican supporters are and will continue highlighting the victories and the depth of their support among Republican voters while underscoring the risks to those who oppose or can be cast as blocking presidential leadership," she said.
Dissenters targeted
Trump endorsed seven GOP challengers campaigning to defeat Indiana state senators who opposed his attempt to redraw congressional districts to give the GOP a greater advantage. Trump called each incumbent a "LOSER" and a Republican in name only.
Five of the incumbents were defeated, one survived and another race remained too close to call.
The results illustrated the polarizing effect Trump has. The president's disapproval rating hit an all-time high of 62% in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll taken April 24 to 28, but the same poll of 2,560 adults found 85% of Republican voters approved of the job he's doing.
"Trump is perhaps not as popular in my district as he once was, but he is still overwhelmingly popular," state Sen. Spencer Deery, whose race was too close to call, told CNN.
Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, said he knew Republicans who were "edging closer to selective criticism of Trump on the war, inflation, and so on," but the Indiana defeats are intimidating.
"It's the survival instinct of politicians who are on the ballot in November," Sabato said. "I guarantee you they've stepped back after Indiana."
Thomas Massie
Massie voted against the president's tax-cuts package last year. He led the legislative battle to force the Justice Department to release documents about the investigation of the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. He also voted to halt the war on Iran.
Trump blasted Massie in social media posts and visited his Kentucky district in March to campaign for his primary opponent.
"He's the worst person," Trump said of Massie at a March rally where he endorsed Ed Gallrein in Hebron, Kentucky. "Massie is a complete and total disaster as a congressman and frankly as a human being."
Massie leads Gallrein in polling for the May 19 primary.
Bill Cassidy
Cassidy was among the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second Senate impeachment trial on charges that he incited the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. Trump was acquitted due to lack of a two-thirds majority in the 57-43 vote.
More recently, Cassidy, a doctor, forced the withdrawal of Trump's candidate for surgeon general, Casey Means, after grilling her over a lack of support for vaccines.
Trump called Cassidy "a very disloyal person" in an April 30 social media post.
Trump endorsed Cassidy's primary opponent, Rep. Julia Letlow, as a "TOTAL WINNER" to support energy development and lower taxes and regulations.
Brad Raffensperger
Raffensperger is running for governor after he refused Trump's request to "find" enough votes to win the state in 2020, when Trump lost to Democratic President Joe Biden.
In January 2021, Trump accused Raffensperger of not doing his job and alleging without evidence that thousands of fraudulent votes were cast.
Trump endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones in the Georgia primary May 19 as a "WARRIOR" to grow the economy, cut taxes and secure the border.
Sabato said it would take extraordinary luck for Massie, Cassidy and Raffensperger to win their primaries. "There are always surprises and an occasional exception to the rule, but these three will be the equivalent of multi-state lottery winners if they survive Trump's wrath," he said.
